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TALLAHASSEE -- As Floridians consider
drastically revamping their tax system over the next seven months, they will hear plenty of advice to just say "no."
Though it sailed through the Legislature this week, a key part of the property tax reform plan has only tepid support
even among some of the legislators who voted for it, including Bradenton Sen. Mike Bennett.
Others are openly hostile,
led by a long list of public officials eager to protect revenue that would be lost if voters approve a constitutional change
on Jan. 29 that could deeply cut property tax bills.
"You've got to fight the PTA, you're going to
fight librarians, you've got to fight firefighters," said Rep. Jack Seiler, D-Wilton Manors and an opponent of the
measure lawmakers approved on Thursday.
Seiler envisions parents taking their children to libraries or soccer practice
and receiving fliers warning those programs will be killed if the measure passes.
"You're going to go
up against a machine," Seiler said.
Just which groups will be willing to invest money, time and political
capital in fighting for the plan is not as clear.
"I don't know who's going to be the champions promoting
it," said Sen. Jim King, R-Jacksonville, who voted for the plan. "I do know who's going to be the naysayers,
and the naysayers are fairly prominent and visible citizens in the community."
Voters will be deciding on
a constitutional change that would allow them to keep their current tax caps and levels or switch to a new "super exemption"
worth up to $195,000 for a $500,000 home.
But that switch would also bring future assessment increases that could
be greater than the current Save Our Homes cap of 3 percent annually.
Beyond battling for public favor against
popular groups like teachers and firefighters, the hurdle of gaining 60 percent approval is a high one.
Voters
approved a change last year raising the necessary vote to change the constitution from 50 to 60 percent.
Popular
changes to the constitution that did not receive 60 percent in recent years include the limits on class sizes, the mandate
for free pre-K classes and the 1992 vote to implement the Save Our Homes cap on assessment increases that has caused the current
crisis.
Gov. Charlie Crist, carrying 70 percent approval ratings, would be the most powerful campaign force for
the initiative.
Asked Thursday night how active he would be in pushing for passage, he said, "as much as I
can."
The January vote could set Crist on the opposite side of groups that have supported him passionately,
including law enforcement officers. And his newfound allies in public schools will also bristle at the projected loss of $1.5
billion annually if the plan passes.
"That's going to make it tough for him to campaign hard," said
Seiler, who was Crist's guest at the governor's mansion last week for a talk about the tax cuts. "He can't
be openly opposed to their interests."
Sen. Steve Geller, D-Hallandale Beach, was more blunt in his advice
for his friend.
"I'd claim victory and flee. He's already had his moment in the sun," Geller
said of the passage of a separate bill cutting taxes by nearly $16 billion immediately. "Now he needs to stay away from
the campaign which will turn to the largest education funding cut in the history of the state, the largest cut in fire fighting
in the state ..."
One group that will ask voters to approve the change is the Florida Association of Realtors,
which views the removal of the Save Our Homes cap as a needed spark so homeowners can move without facing drastically steeper
tax bills.
"We do support the ballot initiative for next January," said John Sebree, vice president for
public policy for the association, adding that it was too early to tell how much the group might invest in a campaign.
Another group that would stand to benefit from a rejuvenated real estate market is the Florida Home Builders Association.
But Edie Ousley, a spokeswoman for the group, said the association "has not taken a position" on campaigning.
She said the phase-out of Save Our Homes is favored by most of the group's members, but the absence of help for non-residents
who own second homes in the state may be a sticking point.
Bennett, the senator from Bradenton, is a developer
and ally of the construction industry. He said the vote is "going to fail" and that lawmakers should have considered
limits on impact fees assessed on new homes around the state that local governments might raise if their tax revenue is cut.
"I think that (builders) are hoping it will fail and then we would have to go back into it next year and address
it," he said.
Business groups traditionally aligned with lower taxes and the Republican Party are neutral
for now on the January vote.
On one hand, the ballot measure includes a cut in the tangible property tax that would
eliminate the tax for most of the 1.3 million businesses in the state.
But the super exemption does nothing for
businesses and the failure to immediately abolish Save Our Homes means businesses would still be paying a disproportionate
share of property taxes..
"Because it is a single package, take it or leave it, we will be gauging small-business owners'
opinions on the full proposal to determine our position," said Bill Herrle, executive director of the National Federation
of Independent Business in Florida.
Adam Babington, the property tax coalition coordinator for the Florida Chamber
of Commerce, said the state's largest business group was still trying to figure out the plan's ramifications.
Also hindering passage is lukewarm support from some lawmakers who voted for the plan.
Sen. Dennis Jones, R-Seminole,
said he voted for the plan Thursday to give voters a choice. But he will vote against it in January. He said the failure to
help coastal businesses paying high taxes, and the lack of significant help for his retired constituents who want to move,
left him feeling sour.
"I would be amazed if it ever passed," Jones said.
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